Scenario planning: How hotel groups are dealing with uncertainty

In this article, the author of “See Your New Normal”, Woody Wade, states that as professionals with responsibilities for the future success of companies, individuals will inevitably be called upon to make big, consequential decisions without knowing exactly what the future will be like and whether those decisions will turn out to be good or bad. It is important to understand how a decision can turn out to be terribly wrong, such as by not assessing the future and making a decision based on today's circumstances but executing it in tomorrow's landscape where conditions have changed. The conclusion is that good decision-making calls for foresight, the ability to foresee changes that could realistically materialize in the environment, understand the implications of those changes for the business, and increase the company's chances of future success. The question is raised of how to achieve this foresight.

Let’s all hope we will not soon face another earth-shattering catastrophe like Covid, or dramatic economic and geopolitical pressures like the ones triggered by the Russia–Ukraine conflict.

But even if we’re lucky and are spared such disastrous developments, other big uncertainties affecting us are sure to arise – and when they do, we’ll have no choice but to confront them. As professionals with responsibilities for the future success of our companies, we will unavoidably be called upon to make big, consequential decisions, not knowing exactly what the future will be like in which these decisions will play out – and thus never 100% sure whether they will turn out to be good decisions… or bad ones.

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As we have embarked on 2023, it is evident that the hotel industry has made a robust recovery from the pandemic. Occupancy and pricing have returned to their pre-pandemic levels. However, the future of our industry is contingent on how nimble the hospitality sector can be in adapting to ongoing innovation, changing market conditions, evolving consumer preferences, new staffing challenges, and sustainability realities. These uncertainties are the new normal in an unpredictable world.www.hotelyearbook.com/edition/2023.html